On 7 February 2026, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the US tariff on Indian exports had come down from 50% to 18% under an interim India–US trade agreement (News On AIR, Feb 2026). He listed products such as spices, tea, coffee, cashew nuts, mangoes and bananas as getting zero US duty, and said items India produces in quantity, including maize, wheat, rice, sugar, soybean and poultry, were kept outside India's tariff concessions. By September 2026, talks on a fuller agreement were still going on, with reports of a few roadblocks (India Sea Trade News, Sep 2026).
For supply chain teams, the tariff number is less instructive than the swing. The duty on many Indian goods entering the US first climbed to 50%, then dropped to 18%, and the final terms are still open. Any plan built on one fixed landed cost broke at least twice.
What a tariff swing does inside a company
A tariff is a cost added at the border. When it changes sharply, it ripples through every part of a supply chain plan:
- Pricing and margin. An exporter in Tiruppur selling cotton T-shirts to a US retailer either absorbs the duty, passes it on, or loses the order.
- Demand. Buyers delay orders or split them across countries while they wait for clarity. Forecasts built on last year's order book stop working.
- Inventory. Goods already in transit or in a warehouse were priced under one regime and land under another.
- Sourcing. Companies that buy components abroad and export finished goods have to recalculate which supplier is cheapest once duties change at both ends.
- Market mix. Firms that depended on one market look harder at others. The India–EU free trade agreement concluded in January 2026 (European Commission, Jan 2026) is one reason exporters are now running numbers for Europe, though it is not yet in force.
None of this is unusual. It is what supply chain risk looks like when it arrives through policy instead of a flood or a factory fire.
What the work looks like day to day
Early-career supply chain roles (planner, buyer, analyst, S&OP coordinator) spend much of their time on questions that a shock like this makes urgent:
- Which customers, products and markets would a 30% cost change hurt most?
- Which of our suppliers are a single point of failure, and do we have a qualified backup?
- How much safety stock do we hold, and is it in the right place?
- What does sales think will happen next quarter, what can operations make, and what will finance fund? (Sales and operations planning.)
- If we had to switch suppliers, what is the full cost, not just the unit price?
A realistic example
Say you are a junior planner at a mid-sized company in Coimbatore that makes pump components and sells roughly a third of its output to US distributors. When the tariff rose, the US orders slowed. When it fell to 18%, they came back, all at once.
Your manager asks for three things by Friday. First, a list of the ten SKUs with the highest US exposure, with their current stock and open orders. Second, a simple forecast with three scenarios: tariff stays at 18%, returns to a higher rate, or a fuller deal cuts it further. Third, a check on two raw material suppliers you depend on, one of whom is your only source for a casting. You build the list in Excel, use a moving average with scenario adjustments for the forecast, and flag the casting as a single point of failure with a note on what a second supplier might cost to qualify.
That is a normal week. It just matters more when the environment is moving.
Skills that are rising
- Scenario-based forecasting rather than one number.
- Risk mapping: listing suppliers, routes and markets, and finding single points of failure.
- Total cost thinking: duty, freight, lead time, quality and working capital, not just the quote.
- Sourcing strategy: when to use one supplier, two, or many.
- S&OP coordination: getting sales, operations and finance onto one plan.
- Clear communication of risk to managers who want a decision, not a spreadsheet.
How to start
- Read Goyal's February 2026 statement and list which Indian sectors it names as winners.
- Pick one Indian export product you know (garments, auto parts, shrimp, spices). Sketch its supply chain on one page from raw material to overseas customer.
- Mark the three points where a disruption would hurt most, and write one backup option for each.
- Build a small forecast in Excel from 12 months of made-up sales, then create three scenarios and compare the stock you would need under each.
Two of our courses follow this path.
Supply Chain Fundamentals (free) begins with what a supply chain is in terms of goods, money and information, network design, and make-or-buy decisions. Week 2 covers forecast error, simple forecasting methods you can use in Excel, and S&OP. Week 3 is inventory: safety stock and the reorder point, ABC analysis, and warehouse basics. Week 4 is the most relevant to this story: types of supply chain risk, mapping suppliers to find single points of failure, and building resilience with buffers, backup sources and playbooks. The final assignment is a risk register and resilience plan.
Procurement & Sourcing Strategy goes deeper on the buying side. It starts with total cost, spend analysis and category management, then a lesson on sourcing strategy with one, two or many suppliers. Week 2 covers writing a clear request for quotation, evaluating suppliers with a weighted scorecard, and negotiating contracts. Week 4 covers sustainable procurement and measuring supply chain emissions.
Who this is for: engineering, commerce and MBA students interested in supply chain, and early-career planners, buyers and analysts in manufacturing, export houses and distribution.
Who this is not for: anyone looking for trade policy analysis or tariff predictions. These courses teach how to plan and source well when policy changes, not what policy will do next.
The honest takeaway
The US tariff on Indian goods fell from 50% to 18%, and the fuller deal is still being worked out. Companies that had mapped their risks and kept options open handled the swing better. That mapping and planning work is where many supply chain careers start.
Begin with the free Supply Chain Fundamentals, then take Procurement & Sourcing Strategy for the supplier side. Getskilled membership (₹99 for 90 days) includes live webinars, recordings and the members' WhatsApp community.
